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OCT
27
Category 5 Melissa, One of the Strongest Hurricanes in Atlantic History, 11:10pm Monday
By:
Mike Smith
on
OCT
27
11:10pm. Updated NHC forecast and warnings. Red = hurricane warnings. 8:10pm. I think the Hurricane Center is being conservative with Melissa's eye winds. They are clearly at least 180 mph. The storm has been drifting very slowly to the southwest the past couple of hours which was not forecast. The farther west the eye moves, the better it would be for Jamaica so please offer some prayers this trend continues. I'd love for the purple line below to be the most correct or even to the west. 1:48pm. Melissa's winds are now 175 mph -- one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history. 1:30pm. Melissa has made the north turn. Below are forecast paths of the center from the most trustworthy models.The strongest winds will be along and to the east of the actual path. Mountains increase the amount of rain. Here is a topographic map of the Island of Jamaica.The mountains are somewhat lower on the west side of the island than in the east. The highest winds wil
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OCT
26
Hurricane Melissa is Likely a Category 5; Updated 1:15am
By:
Mike Smith
on
OCT
26
[1:15a Monday] This is the most powerful hurricane in its presentation on satellite that you will probably ever see in the Atlantic. The (hard to discern) lightning around the eye indicates additional strengthening. I have placed an arrow pointing to the northeast coast of Jamaica.I suspect winds are now in the 160mph range or even a little stronger but we won't know because the midnight Hurricane Hunter aircraft has apparently had to turn back (reason unknown). [6:20p] As anticipated, the strengthening of Melissa resumed this afternoon and it now appears it will reach Cat 5 intensity.[4:20p] Based on satellite and aircraft Hurricane Hunter data, Melissa has sustained winds of 150 mph around the eye and the pressure has dropped at least another 4 mb during the past four hours. The storm has moved straight west since 11am.See the guidance below. This will likely be a catastrophic storm for Jamaica. Here is what the Jamaica Observer is saying about the storm. Image of Mel
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OCT
26
Sunday Fun: Unamerican!
By:
Mike Smith
on
OCT
26
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